As
I go along with my trading, I learn and I am bringing my knowledge and
perception back to you. Make your own conclusions and take my opinion only
as one indication.
I had one doubt ever since I got
some grip of things in online share trading. That doubt was, whether booking
profits and buying those scrips again at their lower levels was the right
strategy to follow, or as I have always believed in, waiting for the long
term, without touching my positions is the right thing to do.
Short term - sentiments plays; long term - corporate performance pays.
Dec 06 -
Feb 07 is a period when I have seen a lot of volatility and downtrend in the
markets and sometimes weeks of incessant downward movements. I would like to
take an example of real estate major Unitech, where I have a sizable
investment. I have seen it appreciating and reaching levels of unrealised
50% profits for me. However, following my policy of long term stay and
having tremendous belief in a real estate major like Unitech, in bringing
wealth, I waited.
However, markets were quickly
and heavily thrashed and I came to a situation where all my gains in Unitech were lost
and entered -ve territory.
Here, my thoughts are; if I had
at the point when I saw the greatest gains, either sold part and waited on
cash to reenter Unitech, or as another strategy entered into a different
scrip with the money I earned from the selling, I am very likely to have
achieved better position overall.
Short term Players may book profit. Long termers, does it matter?
In a situation like in
May 06 where the
whole market was coming down together and sharply, a profit booking strategy
does hardly exist unless something is done at the beginning of the fall.
However, when the volatility is present and when some sectors / scrips earn
and some loose alternating, profit booking is a strategy to follow.
However, there is another side
to the question, 'whether to book profits or not'. That is, your share
price appreciates well for a particular scrip so that you decide to sell
it. Your enter a new stock or the same stock when their prices are down.
While doing this, you gave a broker commission selling the original stock,
gave a commission while buying a new scrip. Also, what if the new one des
not do well or appreciate as much as the old one would have?
My strategy is one of identifying performing companies.
Hence, the question as to whether 'to book profits
or not' is a rather tough one. I will tell you my strategy rather than
answering the tough question. That is, 'identify good companies - buy, hold
and accumulate' on dips. Now, when I get a feeling that the scrip or sector
is paralysed (for a period of few months may be), I exit the scrip.
There is a venerable
Rakesh Jhunjunwala strategy where you enter into a scrip after finding its value
and stay for years. 10 - 15 years. No profit booking and instead 'company
watching' as I explained is known to be his idea. There is also that sect of
investors where they do not have that much time or patience for not more
than 2 - 5 years. For that group, profit booking may be a strategy they
choose to follow, whether that's the optimum thing to do or not, I still have my
doubts.
Selling - not recommended.
I have seen few companies that cease to appreciate in this bull market.
So don't rush into selling. While agreeing with the argument that profit
booking is a necessary step for a short term investor, there is a need to
reduce your selling on account of the broker commission also as explained
earlier. Whether you have earned from a transaction or not, brokers charge
hefty commission on your transactions. An example figure is 1.5% of the
transaction. So next time you go for a sell, remember these losses.
On 5th March 07 as I continue
my observation, market continues to be in great pain and the SENSEX is down to
12415 levels after it was about to touch 15000 levels few weeks before. In
May 06, I lost part of my principal and I was headed up in early Feb 07.
However today I am again sitting with a wounded principal. Here, I begin to
think whether there is a good time to enter the market (I started late Dec
2005) while there is no such thing as a good time.
My advice - stop at 'adjustments and
realignments'.
I believe
in things happening the way they happen and do not believe in good time and
bad time. However, in the market, there is no doubt that the more you stay
more you are at profit and more you are safe from crashes. In the short
term, anything is possible.
However keep in mind these
things,
1. Watching the company and sector's performance and news flow.
2. Not
selling until its is absolutely necessary to do so, and buying in part by part
(morning the market may be +ve and in the evening
on a big downfall) or
making a 'limit' order. That is putting your new money in
installments will help catch the best of the both.
A better idea than wondering
when and whether to sell the scrip you trust, may be to sell a small part
and enter the new one you trust and then wait and watch before making the next move.
That's what I shall call adjustments and realignments''.
- TP Gopinath
for CalicutNet.com
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