Many deadlines have come and gone.
Patience is wearing thin on both sides. The language of consensus turns out
to be that of the latest warning and threat. When both the sides are
challenging each other, Gulf region is going to be more anxious.
Now the number of players has increased.
Besides the US and Israel, the European Union also warns Iran on its
controversial nuclear policy. One side is filled with major powers. A
confident Iran is defending itself with firm determination on the other
side. Iran's missile test and Israel's response and the US's warning has led
gulf region into a cloudy state of war.
Iran's
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khomeini said this week that Iran would press
ahead in its nuclear path. Iran's
representative at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Asghar
Soltanieh Ali said that no deadline has been accepted. On the other hand,
the US, Israel, and Germany reminds Iran continue to issue
fresh ‘deadlines.’
Diplomacy mixed with threat of attack: 'Carrot and Stick'
The US is reportedly covertly joining
with Israel to plan an attack within few months, if it is necessary, after
more sanctions fail to work.
Israeli Deputy Prime Minister
Shaul Mofaz said that Iran’s move towards a breakthrough in development
of nuclear technology and thereby, a capacity for making weapons,
can not be tolerated.
Iran also seeks advice from Arab allies
and diplomats for a counter attack if needed. Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad’s arrival in Iran for talks is said to be a strategic move by Iran,
according to experts on International relations. Iran's recent missile tests
were not as advanced as the media hype and the West fear, according to
independent diplomatic analysts.
Followed by the test, the
representatives of world powers - US, Russia, China, France, Germany, and
Britain attended a meeting in Geneva with Iran. All of them agreed and put
together a framework for future talks and Iran expressed their consent.
Peace lovers all over the world heaved a sigh of relief. Many international
diplomats described this development as a good sign.
The US secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice confirmed that the US had shifted its position on diplomacy with Iran.
But new hopes of constructive talks reached nowhere. The Geneva meeting was
a rare face to face dialogue between Iran and America because all the
diplomatic relations with the two nations had come to a halt in 1979. Soon
after the talks Rice's repeated demand for Iran's answer on suspending of
uranium enrichment and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s ruling out of
the move of freezing the same, again turned all the hope upside down.
It was clear soon that the apparent
calm in the tension was short lived.
Iran has already answered this sensitive
diplomatic question without much difficulty, "they repeated that their
development of nuclear technology would continue as it is".
What will be the price of more
provocative questions and answers? We have to wait and see. Iran has
reiterated that their Uranium enrichment is entirely for peaceful purposes
and not for making nuclear weapons. But the western powers do not accept
Iran's statement on face value. The US has warned that if Iran fails to
freeze Uranium enrichment, they would impose more stringent sanctions on
Iran. The European Union imposed new sanctions on Iran in June.
Show of strength - the missile tests:
Iran's demonstration of Shahab missile
with a range of 2,012 kilometers is said to be aimed at Israel. But soon
after the image of missiles appeared in the media, a new controversy also
arose related to its capabilities.
All the missiles showed off by Tehran
recently were medium range and not a threat to Israel and its neighbors,
many experts on diplomatic strategies opined. There is also opinion that the
photos were doctored to replicate the number. "There's no doubt that the
photo was doctored "said Mark Fitzpatrick, director of the Non-Proliferation
Program for the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Condoleezza Rice stated that the missile
tests underscored the need for a US defensive missile system in the region.
Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell stated that the test was taken
seriously and was an attempt to destabilize the region.
Tehran staged the missile tests as a
show of strength in response to a recent Israeli military exercise.
Even though Tehran claimed it as a
warning to Israel, many opined the video footage of Iran's missile test was
just a recurrence of old tests. Iran will target "the heart of Israel" and
32 US bases in the Gulf if they launch an attack on Iran, an Iranian
official had warned. Iran said it was prepared to negotiate with major world
powers, but insisted the talks must address Iran's nuclear rights. Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's provocative statements to 'wipe out' Israel
from the map have only escalated tensions in the region says, Parthasarathy,
former Indian High Commissioner to Karachi.
US to Iran : freeze enrichment and take home the benefits!
The western powers offered Iran benefits
in civil nuclear energy, trade, finance, agriculture, and high technology
if Iran freezes uranium enrichment. But the reactions on the part of Iran
show they have ignored the package. The tolerant attitude of Iran on
dialogues and the policy change of the US had made a progressive sign at
least for few days before sliding into a war of words yet again.
Israel does not worry about the missile
tests because they have a strong army and advanced weaponry that Iran can't
develop in near future. Hence they ignored the missile tests as passé which
many condemned. Some among the Israelis compared the test to Saddam's
rockets and said Iranians would go the same way.
Iran has repeatedly said that it is
prepared to negotiate with major world powers, but insisted the talks must
address Iran's nuclear rights.
Iran's neighbors such as Saudi Arabia
are also nervous about Iran's nuclear ambitions. President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad had repeatedly emphasized that Iran would not surrender to
international pressure. "The Iranian nation will not succumb to bullying,
invasion, and the violation of its rights," he had said. Ahmadinejad
announced a nuclear expansion too. He said Iran now possesses 6,000
centrifuges for enriching uranium. He declared that this increase was
already accepted by the West.
But the US and western powers are said
to be skeptic on this statement of the Iranian leader in the changed
scenario.
The west fears that Iran can develop a
nuclear bomb within two years, if they move ahead with enrichment of uranium
with better speed. Many foreign diplomatic analysts already pointed that
Iran had no such progress. They believe Iran has been moving with outdated
technology and older missiles. Still the US and world powers pressurize Iran
on the nuclear issue. No wonder many suspects the real intention of the US
behind this move.
There are two options for the US:
Avoid a language of threat and war until
they get foolproof evidence that Iran is going to develop a nuclear weapon.
Engage in more positive talks with Iran and reach a consensus and try to
lift the economic sanctions. Iran can co-operate with diplomatic talks and
keep away from provocative statements. Creative dialogues and debates would
help avoiding crisis and conflicts.
With provocative words and warning tones
none can reach a consensus whether it is a small or big issue. The entire
world is learning the terrible lessons of war. The destructive war in Iraq
still haunts many in Gulf region. Victims of war have been suffering the
aftermath, both physically and mentally.
The cries of helpless children, troubles
of widows, broken hearts of mothers who lost their progeny, aggrieve all the
humanity. "Violence has overtaken dialogue and compassion has lost out to
anger.” Queen Rania of Jordan points out the present day environment of the
world in general. The need of the hour is tolerance and consensus.
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By Rajesh
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